How London will vote in the EU referendum?
It has been reported that London is pro-EU but we wanted to find out how different pockets of Londoners are intending to vote in the upcoming referendum, so we contacted 300,000 Londoners asking them exactly that. Although overall results were in line with widespread knowledge, some interesting results were revealed when we dug a little deeper into London’s unique population.
Over 2,000 Londoners responded and key results showed 47% want Britain to stay in the EU, 40% want to leave, 11% are undecided and 1% are not planning to vote.
Given the diversity of London’s residents, voting intentions are likely to vary widely between different areas. London Citizens is a geo-demographic segmentation tool that uses vast amounts of information to group together Londoners based on their similar characteristics. There are 10 core groups and 31 sub-groups, ranging from the Socially Strapped to the London Elites.
Our data scientists used the London Citizens segmentation tool to weight results and thus gain a more representative idea of how Londoners will vote. By giving more weight to groups that represent a larger proportion of London and vice versa, the results revealed that the gap in opinions is even greater than initial results suggest. With 47% of Londoners wanting Britain to stay in the EU but only 38% wanting to leave, there is likely to be a 9% gap in opinions come this June’s referendum.
The segmentation tool was also used to divide survey responders’ answers to expose a whole new level of insight…
Analysing the results at group level revealed that the Socially Strapped and Stretched & Skirting groups (two of London’s lowest socio-economic groups, making up 55% of London households) are mostly in favour of the Brexit. In general, the higher socio-economic groups are largely in favour of staying in the EU, particularly the Inner City Singles. As their name suggests, this group is largely made up of sophisticated young professionals, often found privately renting flats in Zones 1 or 2.
Using London Citizens at sub-group level exposed some more in-depth results with even greater differences. The City Sophisticates are a sub-group of the Inner City Singles. These city based singles in successful professional roles make up 4% of London’s households and are extremely pro-EU, with almost 70% intending to vote to stay. However, the suburban pensioners that make up the Penny Pinchers from the Stretched & Skirting group have a very different view, with 55% intending to vote to leave the EU.
It is important to note that there are significant proportions within some pockets of Londoners that are undecided. This suggests that potential leverage opportunities within certain groups are in abundance. For example, 19% of professional families that make up the Professional Perfectionists (a sub-group of The Good Life) have not yet decided how they are going to vote. These residents are typically wealthy, home owners living in areas such as Wandsworth, Hounslow and Richmond. The Streets of East (part of the Socially Strapped group) also show a high potential for leverage opportunities. The results show that these individuals are predominantly renting in Newham and often part of a young Asian family. Although they are currently more likely to vote to leave than stay in the EU (by 7%), 14% have not yet decided and 7% have stated that they just won’t vote.
Much of the impact the EU referendum will have is still unknown but one thing is for sure, it will be history in the making and will affect Britain greatly.
See the infographic below for an overview of the results.
To learn more about the London Citizens and how it can be applied to reveal insight for your organisation, click here.